Main
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Dricus Du Plessis
42%
58%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
28-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
24-3
W1
Current streak
W5
19
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Whittaker: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Du Plessis: 62 sig / 1 TD
Robert Whittaker
Dricus Du Plessis
62
Sig strikes landed
74
152
Sig strikes attempted
153
77
Total strikes landed
92
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
53s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 15-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W5
Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
24-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—