🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkanovski
Yair Rodriguez
80%
20%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
28-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-6
L1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Volkanovski: 66 sig / 7 TD ·
Rodriguez: 40 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkanovski
Yair Rodriguez
98
Sig strikes landed
77
176
Sig strikes attempted
180
148
Total strikes landed
97
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
267s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
28-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 12-1
Last 5
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
W2
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
22-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—