Prelims1
Featherweight
Francis Marshall vs William Gomis
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Francis Marshall
William Gomis
50%
50%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
11-3
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Marshall: 15 sig / 2 TD ·
Gomis: 27 sig / 0 TD
Francis Marshall
William Gomis
23
Sig strikes landed
28
64
Sig strikes attempted
58
41
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
252s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francis Marshall
"Fire"
11-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
Blue corner
W1
William Gomis
"Jaguar"
16-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—