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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Brady Hiestand vs Batgerel Danaa

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brady Hiestand
Batgerel Danaa
73% 27%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
24
Age
Δ 10y
34
10-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Hiestand: 45 sig / 3 TD · Danaa: 41 sig / 1 TD
Brady Hiestand
Batgerel Danaa
44
Sig strikes landed
45
106
Sig strikes attempted
102
60
Total strikes landed
71
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
5.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
262s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Brady Hiestand

"Bam Bam"
10-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
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Blue corner
L2

Batgerel Danaa

"Storm"
12-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
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W UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
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W UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—