Back to UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Mohammed Usman vs Junior Tafa

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Mohammed Usman
Junior Tafa
62% 38%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 8y
27
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Usman: 7 sig / 2 TD · Tafa: 22 sig / 0 TD
Mohammed Usman
Junior Tafa
26
Sig strikes landed
19
63
Sig strikes attempted
40
43
Total strikes landed
19
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Mohammed Usman

"The Motor"
13-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
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Blue corner

Junior Tafa

"The Juggernaut"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27