Main
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells vs Matthew Semelsberger
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeremiah Wells
Matthew Semelsberger
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
14-4-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
12-8
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Wells: 36 sig / 6 TD ·
Semelsberger: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jeremiah Wells
Matthew Semelsberger
29
Sig strikes landed
25
67
Sig strikes attempted
62
57
Total strikes landed
30
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
321s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jeremiah Wells
14-4-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
Blue corner
W1
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
12-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—