Prelims1
Flyweight
Brandon Royval vs Matheus Nicolau
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Matheus Nicolau
42%
58%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
18-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-6-1
W2
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Royval: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Nicolau: 2 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Royval
Matheus Nicolau
30
Sig strikes landed
42
82
Sig strikes attempted
77
38
Total strikes landed
46
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
49s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
Blue corner
W4
Matheus Nicolau
20-6-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—