Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Bill Algeo
TJ Brown
64%
36%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
18-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-11
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Algeo: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Brown: 46 sig / 1 TD
Bill Algeo
TJ Brown
55
Sig strikes landed
56
117
Sig strikes attempted
129
84
Total strikes landed
72
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.6
3.4
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
123s
Control time
227s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bill Algeo
"Senor Perfecto"
18-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
Blue corner
W1
TJ Brown
"Downtown"
18-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—