Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Zak Cummings vs Ed Herman
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zak Cummings
Ed Herman
76%
24%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
39
Age
Δ 4y
42
26-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
27-17
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cummings: 100 sig / 0 TD ·
Herman: 54 sig / 0 TD
Zak Cummings
Ed Herman
42
Sig strikes landed
42
93
Sig strikes attempted
84
51
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
1.80
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zak Cummings
26-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
Blue corner
L1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
27-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—