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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Zak Cummings vs Ed Herman

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Zak Cummings
Ed Herman
76% 24%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
39
Age
Δ 4y
42
26-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
27-17
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cummings: 100 sig / 0 TD · Herman: 54 sig / 0 TD
Zak Cummings
Ed Herman
42
Sig strikes landed
42
93
Sig strikes attempted
84
51
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
1.80
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Zak Cummings

26-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
L UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
Blue corner
L1

Ed Herman

"Short Fuse"
27-17 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database 16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
W UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
W UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
L UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…