Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Rafa Garcia
39%
61%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
41
Age
Δ 13y
29
39-22
Career record
Δ 19 pp
20-4
W1
Current streak
W1
24
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guida: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 141 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Rafa Garcia
31
Sig strikes landed
63
110
Sig strikes attempted
120
53
Total strikes landed
69
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
24 fights · 13-11
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
20-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—