Back to UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Prelims1 Middleweight

Chris Curtis vs Kelvin Gastelum

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 ·Kaseya Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Curtis
Kelvin Gastelum
74% 26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
33-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
21-12
W1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
20

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Curtis: 70 sig / 0 TD · Gastelum: 83 sig / 0 TD
Chris Curtis
Kelvin Gastelum
64
Sig strikes landed
56
132
Sig strikes attempted
128
77
Total strikes landed
75
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
12s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Chris Curtis

"Action-Man"
33-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
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L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
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W UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
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W UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
L2

Kelvin Gastelum

21-12 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 20 fights · 11-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—