Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Luana Pinheiro
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Luana Pinheiro
42%
58%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 0"
62"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
18-14
Career record
Δ 14 pp
12-5
L2
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Waterson-Gomez: 61 sig / 1 TD ·
Pinheiro: 44 sig / 0 TD
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Luana Pinheiro
58
Sig strikes landed
55
120
Sig strikes attempted
139
79
Total strikes landed
77
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18-14
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
W2
Luana Pinheiro
12-5
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—