Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rob Font
Adrian Yanez
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 6y
29
22-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-6-1
L2
Current streak
W5
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Font: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Yanez: 25 sig / 0 TD
Rob Font
Adrian Yanez
78
Sig strikes landed
82
170
Sig strikes attempted
178
83
Total strikes landed
80
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
24s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rob Font
22-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
W5
Adrian Yanez
18-6-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—