Back to UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Main Welterweight

Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 ·Kaseya Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Santiago Ponzinibbio
53% 47%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 8"
73"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
29-16
Career record
Δ 14 pp
32-9
L2
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Holland: 66 sig / 0 TD · Ponzinibbio: 44 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Holland
Santiago Ponzinibbio
70
Sig strikes landed
64
144
Sig strikes attempted
132
84
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
69s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Kevin Holland

"Trailblazer"
29-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 17 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
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L UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
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W UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
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L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
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Blue corner
W1

Santiago Ponzinibbio

"Argentine Dagger"
32-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
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L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—