Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Jorge Masvidal
45%
55%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
37
Age
Δ 2y
38
23-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
35-18
W1
Current streak
L3
19
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burns: 42 sig / 4 TD ·
Masvidal: 39 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Jorge Masvidal
50
Sig strikes landed
59
98
Sig strikes attempted
112
69
Total strikes landed
75
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 14-5
Last 5
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
Blue corner
L3
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
21 fights · 12-9
Last 5
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—