🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Pereira
Israel Adesanya
40%
60%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
14-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-7
W4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pereira: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Adesanya: 41 sig / 0 TD
Alex Pereira
Israel Adesanya
72
Sig strikes landed
66
138
Sig strikes attempted
140
79
Total strikes landed
75
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
40s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
14-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
24-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 12-2
Last 5
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—