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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Toshiomi Kazama vs Rinya Nakamura

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Toshiomi Kazama
Rinya Nakamura
53% 47%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kazama: 4 sig / 0 TD · Nakamura: 11 sig / 0 TD
Toshiomi Kazama
Rinya Nakamura
36
Sig strikes landed
35
75
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Toshiomi Kazama

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Rinya Nakamura

"Hybred"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28