Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
SeungGuk Choi
HyunSung Park
48%
52%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Choi: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Park: 38 sig / 1 TD
SeungGuk Choi
HyunSung Park
34
Sig strikes landed
38
72
Sig strikes attempted
81
46
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
SeungGuk Choi
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
HyunSung Park
"Peace of Mind"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27