Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yusaku Kinoshita
Adam Fugitt
74%
26%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
22
Age
Δ 12y
34
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kinoshita: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Fugitt: 21 sig / 4 TD
Yusaku Kinoshita
Adam Fugitt
46
Sig strikes landed
46
97
Sig strikes attempted
98
53
Total strikes landed
61
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yusaku Kinoshita
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
L1
Adam Fugitt
10-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
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