Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dooho Choi
Kyle Nelson
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
32
Age
32
17-5-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
17-8-1
L3
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Choi: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 20 sig / 5 TD
Dooho Choi
Kyle Nelson
40
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
73
56
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Dooho Choi
"The Korean Superboy"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
Blue corner
L2
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—