Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Blagoy Ivanov
68%
32%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
37
Age
Δ 1y
36
28-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-6
W1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tybura: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Ivanov: 34 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Blagoy Ivanov
54
Sig strikes landed
44
128
Sig strikes attempted
100
75
Total strikes landed
66
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
203s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
W1
Blagoy Ivanov
"Baga"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—