Main
Featherweight
Nate Landwehr vs Austin Lingo
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nate Landwehr
Austin Lingo
59%
41%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
19-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-3
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Landwehr: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Lingo: 48 sig / 0 TD
Nate Landwehr
Austin Lingo
61
Sig strikes landed
57
132
Sig strikes attempted
136
80
Total strikes landed
68
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
Austin Lingo
"Lights Out"
10-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—