Back to UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Prelims1 Flyweight

CJ Vergara vs Daniel Lacerda

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
CJ Vergara
Daniel Lacerda
52% 48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
12-8-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-7
L1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Vergara: 83 sig / 0 TD · Lacerda: 48 sig / 1 TD
CJ Vergara
Daniel Lacerda
36
Sig strikes landed
37
68
Sig strikes attempted
78
57
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
166s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

CJ Vergara

12-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
L3

Daniel Lacerda

"Miojo"
11-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—