Prelims1
Featherweight
Steven Peterson vs Lucas Alexander
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Steven Peterson
Lucas Alexander
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
19-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
8-6
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Peterson: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Alexander: 85 sig / 0 TD
Steven Peterson
Lucas Alexander
41
Sig strikes landed
50
96
Sig strikes attempted
103
79
Total strikes landed
49
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
241s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Steven Peterson
"Ocho"
19-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
L1
Lucas Alexander
"The Lion"
8-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—