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Main Featherweight

Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Daniel Pineda
Tucker Lutz
51% 49%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
28-17
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pineda: 24 sig / 1 TD · Lutz: 28 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Pineda
Tucker Lutz
31
Sig strikes landed
39
63
Sig strikes attempted
84
46
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
167s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Daniel Pineda

"The Pit"
28-17 (3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 10 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
L1

Tucker Lutz

"Top Gun"
12-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—