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Main Middleweight

Chidi Njokuani vs Albert Duraev

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen ·Frost Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chidi Njokuani
Albert Duraev
67% 33%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
34
Age
34
25-13
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Njokuani: 40 sig / 0 TD · Duraev: 45 sig / 2 TD
Chidi Njokuani
Albert Duraev
39
Sig strikes landed
29
77
Sig strikes attempted
56
49
Total strikes landed
45
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
68s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Chidi Njokuani

"Bang Bang"
25-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1

Albert Duraev

16-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—