Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lerone Murphy
Gabriel Santos
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
26
W3
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Murphy: 93 sig / 1 TD ·
Santos: 69 sig / 5 TD
Lerone Murphy
Gabriel Santos
38
Sig strikes landed
26
79
Sig strikes attempted
57
52
Total strikes landed
35
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
18-1-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
D
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
Gabriel Santos
"Mosquitinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26