Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Muhammad Mokaev
Jafel Filho
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
W3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Mokaev: 16 sig / 4 TD ·
Filho: 9 sig / 0 TD
Muhammad Mokaev
Jafel Filho
25
Sig strikes landed
20
55
Sig strikes attempted
41
78
Total strikes landed
31
3.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.9
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
435s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
67%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Muhammad Mokaev
"The Punisher"
14-0
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30