Prelims2
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Dusko Todorovic
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Christian Leroy Duncan
Dusko Todorovic
69%
31%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Duncan: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Todorovic: 4 sig / 0 TD
Christian Leroy Duncan
Dusko Todorovic
39
Sig strikes landed
38
78
Sig strikes attempted
75
54
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
Blue corner
W1
Dusko Todorovic
"Thunder"
14-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
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W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—