Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Duncan
Omar Morales
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
30
Age
Δ 8y
37
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Duncan: 53 sig / 5 TD ·
Morales: 47 sig / 0 TD
Chris Duncan
Omar Morales
43
Sig strikes landed
39
91
Sig strikes attempted
92
61
Total strikes landed
52
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L2
Omar Morales
"Venezuelan Fighter"
11-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—