Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jack Shore
Makwan Amirkhani
81%
19%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
17-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Shore: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Amirkhani: 10 sig / 1 TD
Jack Shore
Makwan Amirkhani
37
Sig strikes landed
19
69
Sig strikes attempted
52
71
Total strikes landed
32
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
177s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jack Shore
"Tank"
17-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
L1
Makwan Amirkhani
"Mr. Finland"
17-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—