Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Patterson
Yanal Ashmouz
73%
27%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 9"
69"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Patterson: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Ashmouz: 15 sig / 1 TD
Sam Patterson
Yanal Ashmouz
39
Sig strikes landed
29
79
Sig strikes attempted
66
55
Total strikes landed
41
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sam Patterson
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Yanal Ashmouz
"Red Fox"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28