Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Bryan Barberena
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
18-13
W1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nelson: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Barberena: 7 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Bryan Barberena
43
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
74
58
Total strikes landed
64
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
221s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
Blue corner
L1
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—