Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Gaethje
Rafael Fiziev
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
27-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
W6
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Gaethje: 103 sig / 1 TD ·
Fiziev: 97 sig / 0 TD
Justin Gaethje
Rafael Fiziev
66
Sig strikes landed
56
132
Sig strikes attempted
124
75
Total strikes landed
66
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
27-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
Blue corner
W6
Rafael Fiziev
"Ataman"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—