Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jennifer Maia
Casey O'Neill
35%
65%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
22-10-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
12-2
W1
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 145 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Neill: 137 sig / 0 TD
Jennifer Maia
Casey O'Neill
72
Sig strikes landed
112
167
Sig strikes attempted
196
94
Total strikes landed
125
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.00
144s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jennifer Maia
22-10-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
Blue corner
W4
Casey O'Neill
"King"
12-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—