Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marvin Vettori
Roman Dolidze
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
19-11-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-5
L1
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vettori: 106 sig / 0 TD ·
Dolidze: 71 sig / 0 TD
Marvin Vettori
Roman Dolidze
51
Sig strikes landed
47
98
Sig strikes attempted
106
72
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19-11-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W4
Roman Dolidze
16-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—