Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Hadley
Malcolm Gordon
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
12-4
Career record
Δ 14 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hadley: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Gordon: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jake Hadley
Malcolm Gordon
30
Sig strikes landed
30
61
Sig strikes attempted
67
50
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
141s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Hadley
"White Kong"
12-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Malcolm Gordon
"X"
14-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—