🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Kamaru Usman
62%
38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
23-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-5
W8
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 5
Edwards: 120 sig / 0 TD ·
Usman: 87 sig / 4 TD
Leon Edwards
Kamaru Usman
71
Sig strikes landed
71
146
Sig strikes attempted
151
87
Total strikes landed
115
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
7.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
96s
Control time
331s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 12-2
Last 5
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 15-1
Last 5
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—