Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joanne Wood
Luana Carolina
49%
51%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
17-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-6
L3
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Wood: 131 sig / 2 TD ·
Carolina: 100 sig / 0 TD
Joanne Wood
Luana Carolina
66
Sig strikes landed
64
135
Sig strikes attempted
148
99
Total strikes landed
84
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Joanne Wood
"JoJo"
17-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 7-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
L1
Luana Carolina
"Dread"
11-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—