Main
Catch Weight
Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
·The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Ryan Spann
75%
25%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
31
Age
Δ 0y
32
32-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-11
W2
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Krylov: 7 sig / 2 TD ·
Spann: 5 sig / 1 TD
Nikita Krylov
Ryan Spann
29
Sig strikes landed
31
50
Sig strikes attempted
65
52
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—