Main
Bantamweight
Said Nurmagomedov vs Jonathan Martinez
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
·The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Said Nurmagomedov
Jonathan Martinez
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
19-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-6
W4
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Martinez: 38 sig / 0 TD
Said Nurmagomedov
Jonathan Martinez
40
Sig strikes landed
56
100
Sig strikes attempted
114
51
Total strikes landed
66
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
60s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Said Nurmagomedov
19-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
Blue corner
W4
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
20-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—