Prelims1
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Davey Grant
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
·The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Davey Grant
64%
36%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
41
Age
Δ 3y
37
29-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-8
W1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Assuncao: 42 sig / 5 TD ·
Grant: 65 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Davey Grant
57
Sig strikes landed
63
120
Sig strikes attempted
136
66
Total strikes landed
82
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
W1
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
19-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—