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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Karl Williams vs Lukasz Brzeski

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili ·The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Karl Williams
Lukasz Brzeski
68% 32%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Williams: 38 sig / 8 TD · Brzeski: 26 sig / 0 TD
Karl Williams
Lukasz Brzeski
74
Sig strikes landed
57
148
Sig strikes attempted
119
89
Total strikes landed
88
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.70
125s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Karl Williams

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
L1

Lukasz Brzeski

"The Bull"
9-8-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
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