Main
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista vs Guido Cannetti
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
·The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mario Bautista
Guido Cannetti
93%
7%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
30
Age
Δ 14y
43
18-3
Career record
Δ 28 pp
11-8
W3
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bautista: 3 sig / 3 TD ·
Cannetti: 2 sig / 1 TD
Mario Bautista
Guido Cannetti
39
Sig strikes landed
21
85
Sig strikes attempted
46
55
Total strikes landed
28
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
48%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
Blue corner
W2
Guido Cannetti
"Ninja"
11-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
43
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—