Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mateusz Gamrot
Jalin Turner
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
26-5
Career record
Δ 20 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
W5
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gamrot: 29 sig / 4 TD ·
Turner: 40 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Gamrot
Jalin Turner
38
Sig strikes landed
39
76
Sig strikes attempted
92
62
Total strikes landed
52
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
177s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
26-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W5
Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
16-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—