Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Shavkat Rakhmonov
25%
75%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
17-8
Career record
Δ 32 pp
20-0
W2
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Neal: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Rakhmonov: 113 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Shavkat Rakhmonov
37
Sig strikes landed
50
75
Sig strikes attempted
82
47
Total strikes landed
88
-0.1
Takedowns landed
2.6
0.3
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
24s
Control time
260s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
56%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
17-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W4
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
20-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—