Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bo Nickal
Jamie Pickett
77%
23%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nickal: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Pickett: 1 sig / 0 TD
Bo Nickal
Jamie Pickett
35
Sig strikes landed
36
72
Sig strikes attempted
69
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
168s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bo Nickal
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
L2
Jamie Pickett
"The Night Wolf"
13-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—