Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cody Garbrandt
Trevin Jones
65%
35%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
15-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-11
L2
Current streak
L3
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garbrandt: 26 sig / 2 TD ·
Jones: 20 sig / 1 TD
Cody Garbrandt
Trevin Jones
37
Sig strikes landed
36
78
Sig strikes attempted
77
52
Total strikes landed
53
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
65s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
15-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
Blue corner
L3
Trevin Jones
"5 Star"
13-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—