Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Dricus Du Plessis
30%
70%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
39
Age
Δ 10y
29
23-10
Career record
Δ 19 pp
24-3
L1
Current streak
W4
20
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Brunson: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Du Plessis: 71 sig / 1 TD
Derek Brunson
Dricus Du Plessis
37
Sig strikes landed
50
86
Sig strikes attempted
97
52
Total strikes landed
76
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
20 fights · 14-6
Last 5
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
24-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—