Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ian Machado Garry
Song Kenan
76%
24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
18-1
Career record
Δ 26 pp
22-10
W3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Machado Garry: 127 sig / 0 TD ·
Kenan: 55 sig / 2 TD
Ian Machado Garry
Song Kenan
62
Sig strikes landed
37
121
Sig strikes attempted
90
72
Total strikes landed
43
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
65s
Control time
5s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Song Kenan
"The Assassin"
22-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—